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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."